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Main achievements:
· Identification and formulation of relevant risk management decisions 1) prior to, 2) during and 3) after an earthquake.
· Development of a generic (generally adaptable to other locations – and hazards) decision theoretical framework for risk management.
· Derivation and probabilistic representation of “risk indicators” i.e. observable characteristics containing information about earthquake risks. (Building on a concept being investigated in an ongoing SNF project concerning risk management of deteriorating concrete structures).
· Development of Bayesian probabilistic networks for the quantitative risk assessment - based on indicators.
· Identification and quantification of the “strength” of various indicators on optimal risk management decisions.
Added value to the research field and society:
· The consistent and integral treatment of all relevant uncertain parameters, from the earthquake source over the local soil and structural characteristics and up to the direct and indirect economical consequences - is unique.
· Insight for immediate and future benefit in the research area on what information (indicators) are important and should be further investigated.
· The project will reveal significant insight into the scientific relevance of generic approaches for risk management – providing a valuable conclusion in regard to the feasibility of this approach for other application areas (other natural hazards).
· If successful as basis is established for integral risk management of natural hazards.
· The Bayesian indicator based risk management framework facilitates not only consistent quantitative risk assessments in concordance with given evidence but moreover coupled with real-time monitoring systems enhances potentially life-saving decision making.
· Provides a basis for sustainable allocation of societal resources into earthquake risk management.
· Will help identifying areas of importance for future research regarding earthquake risk management.
